TO: Senator-elect Dan Coats
FROM: Cam Savage, Campaign Manager
RE: Election Results Analysis
DATE: November 4, 2010

The purpose of this memo is to add additional information and an historical perspective to your decisive 55%-40% victory in the U.S. Senate race Tuesday.

According to the not-yet certified results, you received 950,244 votes to Congressman Ellsworth’s 656,860, a clear mandate from Hoosier voters.

More than 1.7 million Hoosiers cast votes in the Senate race, the highest turnout in a mid-term election since 1982.

You carried 84 of 92 Indiana counties, a modern record for Indiana U.S. Senate campaigns seriously contested among the major parties. You won 15 of the 18 counties in Congressman Ellsworth’s 8th Congressional district, including his home county.

According to exit polling conducted for the Associated Press, you won among men by 21 points (58-37) and women by 8 points (51-43). One important finding from the exit polling is your standing with “independent” voters, which you won by 19 points (55-34).

You carried Central Indiana by 26 points (61-35), Southern Indiana by 11 points (54-43), and the Indianapolis suburbs by 39 points (66-27). One key to your strong statewide showing was your success in winning 44 percent in Northwest Indiana.

You won every age demographic, carrying seniors by 20 points (57-37). The 45 to 64 year old demographic you won by 17 points (55-38). Among 30 to 44 year olds you won by 5 points (51-46). Among 18 to 29 year olds, you won by a very impressive margin, 13 points (55-42).

Also, you won among voters who “support the Tea Party” by 71 points (83-12). You received the support of 79 percent of voters who indicated they believe the “government is doing too much.”

Your final percentage of the vote and raw vote total both out-performed our vote goal projections and internal polling estimates, while Congressman Ellsworth barely reached the historical minimum threshold of statewide Democrat candidates at 40 percent. The results are a clear indication of the strong campaign you ran and Hoosier’s response to your focus on issues and common-sense solutions.